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The paper discusses the problem of modeling forest fires in the Irkutsk region according to annual data from 2019. Forest fires cause great damage to the natural and material resources of the Russian Federation; therefore, this problem should be given primary attention, including their mathematical modeling. One of the main reasons for the difficult situation with forest fire research is the lack of a comprehensive scientific basis (basic methodology) for both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the forecast of the occurrence, spread and suppression of forest fires. In this paper, regression analysis is considered as the main tool for mathematical modeling and data analysis. A regression model is obtained in the form of a trigonometric dependence.

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